Hawaii Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Carroll an 81% chance of winning the Hawaii Senate 2016 primary. John Carroll won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John Carroll — 81% model odds (won)
2. John P. Roco — 6% model odds
3. Karla Gottschalk — 6% model odds
4. Eddie Pirkowski — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts