Hawaii Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Brian Schatz an 83% chance of winning the Hawaii Senate 2016 primary. Brian Schatz won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Brian Schatz — 83% model odds (won)
2. Miles Shiratori — 5% model odds
3. Arturo Reyes — 5% model odds
4. Tutz Honeychurch — 5% model odds
5. Makani Christensen — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts