Hawaii House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Full Term: a 20% chance of winning the Hawaii House 2016 primary. Calvin Griffin won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Full Term: — 20% model odds
  2. Calvin Griffin — 20% model odds (won)
  3. Calvin C. Griffin — 20% model odds
  4. Yvonne Perry — 20% model odds
  5. Peter H. Plotzeneder — 20% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts