Hawaii House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lei Ahu Isa an 11% chance of winning the Hawaii House 2016 primary. Colleen Wakako Hanabusa won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Lei Ahu Isa — 11% model odds
  2. Colleen Wakako Hanabusa — 11% model odds
  3. Colleen Wakako Hanabusa — 8% model odds (won)
  4. Howard Kim — 8% model odds
  5. Javier Ocasio — 8% model odds
  6. Sam Puletasi — 8% model odds
  7. Lei Sharsh-Davis — 8% model odds
  8. Steve Tataii — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts