Florida Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Patrick Murphy an 85% chance of winning the Florida Senate 2016 primary. Patrick Murphy won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Patrick Murphy — 85% model odds (won)
  2. Alan Grayson — 4% model odds
  3. Pam Keith — 4% model odds
  4. Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente — 3% model odds
  5. Reginald Luster — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts