Florida House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Brian Mast a 69% chance of winning the Florida House 2016 primary. Brian Mast won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Brian Mast — 69% model odds (won)
2. Mark Freeman — 15% model odds
3. Rebecca Negron — 5% model odds
4. Rick Kozell — 4% model odds
5. Noelle Nikpour — 4% model odds
6. Carl J. Domino — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts