Florida House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bob Poe a 90% chance of winning the Florida House 2016 primary. Val Demings won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Bob Poe — 90% model odds
2. Val Demings — 3% model odds (won)
3. Geraldine F. Thompson — 3% model odds
4. Fatima Rita Fahmy — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts