Florida House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Matt Gaetz a 76% chance of winning the Florida House 2016 primary. Matt Gaetz won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Matt Gaetz — 76% model odds (won)
  2. Cris Dosev — 5% model odds
  3. Greg Evers — 4% model odds
  4. Rebekah Johansen Bydlak — 4% model odds
  5. James Zumwalt — 4% model odds
  6. Mark Wichern — 4% model odds
  7. Brian Frazier — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts