California Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Clive Grey a 45% chance of winning the California Senate 2016 primary. Eleanor García won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Clive Grey — 45% model odds
2. Eleanor García — 5% model odds (won)
3. John Thompson Parker — 5% model odds (won)
4. Ling Ling Shi — 5% model odds
5. Mike Beitiks — 5% model odds
6. Jason Hanania — 5% model odds
7. Paul Merritt — 5% model odds
8. Jason Kraus — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts