California Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Gail K. Lightfoot a 50% chance of winning the California Senate 2016 primary. Gail K. Lightfoot won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Gail K. Lightfoot — 50% model odds (won)
2. Mark Matthew Herd — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts