California Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kamala D. Harris a 46% chance of winning the California Senate 2016 primary. Kamala D. Harris won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Kamala D. Harris — 46% model odds (won)
  2. Loretta L. Sanchez — 42% model odds (won)
  3. President Cristina Grappo — 3% model odds
  4. Herbert G. Peters — 3% model odds
  5. Steve Stokes — 2% model odds
  6. Massie Munroe — 2% model odds
  7. Emory Rodgers — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts