California House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Juan Vargas a 50% chance of winning the California House 2016 primary. Juan Vargas won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Juan Vargas — 50% model odds (won)
  2. Juan "Charly" Mercado-Flores — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts