California House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Grace F. Napolitano a 50% chance of winning the California House 2016 primary. Grace F. Napolitano won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Grace F. Napolitano — 50% model odds (won)
2. Roger Hernández — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts