California House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Sean Flynn a 38% chance of winning the California House 2016 primary. Paul Chabot won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Sean Flynn — 38% model odds
  2. Paul Chabot — 37% model odds (won)
  3. Joe Baca — 25% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts