California House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Pete Aguilar a 50% chance of winning the California House 2016 primary. Pete Aguilar won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Pete Aguilar — 50% model odds (won)
2. Kaisar Ahmed — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts