California House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tony Cardenas a 59% chance of winning the California House 2016 primary. Tony Cardenas won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Tony Cardenas — 59% model odds (won)
  2. Richard Alarcon — 23% model odds (won)
  3. Joseph "Joe" Shammas — 8% model odds
  4. Benny "Benito" Bernal — 5% model odds
  5. David Z. Guzman — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts