California House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mike Thompson a 52% chance of winning the California House 2016 primary. Mike Thompson won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Mike Thompson — 52% model odds (won)
2. Alex Poling — 26% model odds
3. Nils Palsson — 22% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts