California House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Doug La Malfa a 42% chance of winning the California House 2016 primary. Doug La Malfa won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Doug La Malfa — 42% model odds (won)
2. Joe Montes — 33% model odds (won)
3. Gary Allen Oxley — 13% model odds
4. Gregory Cheadle — 13% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts