Arizona Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Mccain an 82% chance of winning the Arizona Senate 2016 primary. John Mccain won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John Mccain — 82% model odds (won)
2. Clair Van Steenwyk — 4% model odds
3. Sean Webster — 4% model odds
4. Gary Swing — 4% model odds
5. Kelli Ward — 4% model odds
6. Alex Meluskey — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts