Arizona Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ann Kirkpatrick an 87% chance of winning the Arizona Senate 2016 primary. Ann Kirkpatrick won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Ann Kirkpatrick — 87% model odds (won)
  2. Axel Bello — 13% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts