Arizona House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Trent Franks an 85% chance of winning the Arizona House 2016 primary. Trent Franks won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Trent Franks — 85% model odds (won)
2. Clair Van Steenwyk — 8% model odds
3. Mark Salazar — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts