Arizona House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Christine Jones an 85% chance of winning the Arizona House 2016 primary. Andy Biggs won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Christine Jones — 85% model odds
2. Andy Biggs — 8% model odds (won)
3. Don Stapley — 4% model odds
4. Justin Olson — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts