Arizona House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Gary Kiehne a 43% chance of winning the Arizona House 2016 primary. Paul Babeu won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Gary Kiehne — 43% model odds
  2. Paul Babeu — 34% model odds (won)
  3. Ray Parrish — 6% model odds
  4. Wendy Rogers — 5% model odds
  5. Ken Bennett — 4% model odds
  6. David Gowan — 4% model odds
  7. Shawn Redd — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts