Alaska Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lisa Murkowski an 85% chance of winning the Alaska Senate 2016 primary. Lisa Murkowski won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Lisa Murkowski — 85% model odds (won)
2. Paul Kendall — 6% model odds
3. Thomas Lamb — 6% model odds
4. Bob Lochner — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts