Virginia House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Dave A. Brat a 62% chance of winning the Virginia House 2014 primary. Dave A. Brat won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Dave A. Brat — 62% model odds
  2. Dave A. Brat — 19% model odds (won)
  3. Eric I. Cantor — 19% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts