Texas House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Ratcliffe a 58% chance of winning the Texas House 2014 primary. Ralph M. Hall won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. John Ratcliffe — 58% model odds
2. Ralph M. Hall — 33% model odds (won)
3. Lou Gigliotti — 2% model odds
4. Tony Arterburn — 2% model odds
5. John Stacy — 2% model odds
6. Brent Lawson — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts