Tennessee House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Robert N. Smith a 54% chance of winning the Tennessee House 2014 primary. Phil Roe won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Robert N. Smith — 54% model odds
2. Phil Roe — 15% model odds (won)
3. Daniel J. Hartley — 15% model odds
4. John Paul Rader — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts