South Carolina Senate 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lindsey Graham a 73% chance of winning the South Carolina Senate 2014 primary. Tim Scott won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Lindsey Graham — 73% model odds
2. Det Bowers — 4% model odds
3. Bill Connor — 4% model odds
4. Tim Scott — 4% model odds (won)
5. Randall Young — 4% model odds
6. Richard Cash — 3% model odds
7. Nancy Mace — 3% model odds
8. Lee Bright — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts