Pennsylvania House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Valerie Arkoosh a 50% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2014 primary. Brendan F. Boyle won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Valerie Arkoosh — 50% model odds
2. Brendan F. Boyle — 15% model odds (won)
3. Marjorie Margolies — 15% model odds
4. Daylin B. Leach — 15% model odds
5. Scattered — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts