Pennsylvania House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Arthur L. Halvorson an 82% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2014 primary. Bill Shuster won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Arthur L. Halvorson — 82% model odds
2. Bill Shuster — 7% model odds (won)
3. Scattered — 7% model odds
4. Travis G. Schooley — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts