Oregon Senate 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Monica Wehby a 79% chance of winning the Oregon Senate 2014 primary. Jeff Merkley won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Monica Wehby — 79% model odds
2. Jeff Merkley — 5% model odds (won)
3. Scattered — 5% model odds
4. Jason Conger — 3% model odds
5. Mark Callahan — 3% model odds
6. Jo Rae Perkins — 3% model odds
7. Timothy I. Crawley — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts