New York House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Elise M. Stefanik a 55% chance of winning the New York House 2014 primary. Elise M. Stefanik won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Elise M. Stefanik — 55% model odds
2. Elise M. Stefanik — 40% model odds (won)
3. Matthew A. Doheny — 3% model odds
4. Matthew J. Funiciello — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts