New York House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bruce A. Blakeman a 51% chance of winning the New York House 2014 primary. Bruce A. Blakeman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Bruce A. Blakeman — 51% model odds
2. Bruce A. Blakeman — 43% model odds (won)
3. Opportunity To Ballot — 4% model odds
4. Frank J. Scaturro — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts