New Jersey House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Macarthur a 72% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2014 primary. Tom Macarthur won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Tom Macarthur — 72% model odds (won)
2. Steve Lonegan — 21% model odds
3. Frederick John Lavergne — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts