New Jersey House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Frank C., Jr. Broomell a 17% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2014 primary. Donald W. Norcross won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Frank C., Jr. Broomell — 17% model odds
2. Donald W. Norcross — 12% model odds (won)
3. Frank W. Minor — 12% model odds
4. Scot John Tomaszewski — 12% model odds
5. Donald W. Norcross — 12% model odds
6. Frank C., Jr. Broomell — 12% model odds
7. Frank W. Minor — 12% model odds
8. Scot John Tomaszewski — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts