New Hampshire House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Carol Shea-Porter a 46% chance of winning the New Hampshire House 2014 primary. Frank C. Guinta won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Carol Shea-Porter — 46% model odds
2. Frank C. Guinta — 43% model odds (won)
3. Dan Innis — 3% model odds
4. Brendan Kelly — 3% model odds
5. Everett Jabour — 3% model odds
6. Scattered — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts