North Carolina House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mark Walker a 42% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2014 primary. Phil, Jr. Berger won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Mark Walker — 42% model odds
2. Bruce Voncannon — 32% model odds
3. Mike Causey — 6% model odds
4. Phil, Jr. Berger — 4% model odds (won)
5. Zach Matheny — 4% model odds
6. Jeff Phillips — 4% model odds
7. Charlie Sutherland — 4% model odds
8. Don Webb — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts