Michigan House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Brian Ellis a 50% chance of winning the Michigan House 2014 primary. Justin Amash won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Brian Ellis — 50% model odds
  2. Justin Amash — 44% model odds (won)
  3. Tonya Duncan — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts