Kentucky Senate 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Alison Lundergan Grimes an 87% chance of winning the Kentucky Senate 2014 primary. Alison Lundergan Grimes won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Alison Lundergan Grimes — 87% model odds (won)
2. Gregory Brent Leichty — 4% model odds
3. Burrel Charles Farnsley — 4% model odds
4. Tom Recktenwald — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts