Iowa Senate 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Joni Ernst a 70% chance of winning the Iowa Senate 2014 primary. Joni Ernst won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Joni Ernst — 70% model odds (won)
2. Mark Jacobs — 20% model odds
3. Scattered — 3% model odds
4. Sam Clovis — 2% model odds
5. Matt Whitaker — 2% model odds
6. Scott Schaben — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts