Iowa House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Pat Murphy a 72% chance of winning the Iowa House 2014 primary. Pat Murphy won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Pat Murphy — 72% model odds (won)
2. Monica Vernon — 8% model odds
3. Scattered — 6% model odds
4. Swati Dandekar — 6% model odds
5. Dave O'Brien — 4% model odds
6. Anesa Kajtazovic — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts