Hawaii Senate 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Arturo Pacheco Reyes a 66% chance of winning the Hawaii Senate 2014 primary. Joy Allison won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Arturo Pacheco Reyes — 66% model odds
  2. Joy Allison — 34% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts