Hawaii House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mark Takai a 79% chance of winning the Hawaii House 2014 primary. Mark Takai won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mark Takai — 79% model odds (won)
  2. Donna Mercado Kim — 5% model odds
  3. Stanley Chang — 4% model odds
  4. Ikaika Anderson — 3% model odds
  5. Will Espero — 3% model odds
  6. Joey Manahan — 3% model odds
  7. Kathryn Xian — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts