Florida House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Mica an 85% chance of winning the Florida House 2014 primary. John Mica won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John Mica — 85% model odds (won)
2. Don Oehlrich — 7% model odds
3. David Smith — 5% model odds
4. Kelly Shirley — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts