California House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Carl Demaio a 39% chance of winning the California House 2014 primary. Carl Demaio won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Carl Demaio — 39% model odds (won)
2. Fred J., Jr. Simon — 36% model odds
3. Kirk Jorgensen — 25% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts