Wisconsin Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mandela Barnes an 88% chance of winning the Wisconsin Senate 2022 primary. Ron Johnson won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Mandela Barnes — 88% model odds
  2. Ron Johnson — 12% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 0% model odds
  4. Adam Paul — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts