Wisconsin House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Brad Pfaff a 63% chance of winning the Wisconsin House 2022 primary. Derrick Van Orden won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Brad Pfaff — 63% model odds
  2. Derrick Van Orden — 37% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts