Vermont Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Gerald Malloy a 48% chance of winning the Vermont Senate 2022 primary. Peter Welch won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Gerald Malloy — 48% model odds
  2. Natasha Diamondstone-Kohout — 48% model odds
  3. Peter Welch — 4% model odds (won)
  4. Dawn Marie Ellis — 0% model odds
  5. Kerry Patrick Raheb — 0% model odds
  6. Mark Coester — 0% model odds
  7. Stephen Duke — 0% model odds
  8. Ms. Cris Ericson — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts