Virginia House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Gerald E. "Gerry" Connolly a 95% chance of winning the Virginia House 2022 primary. Gerald E. "Gerry" Connolly won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Gerald E. "Gerry" Connolly — 95% model odds (won)
  2. James G. "Jim" Myles — 5% model odds
  3. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts