Virginia House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Abigail A. Spanberger a 67% chance of winning the Virginia House 2022 primary. Abigail A. Spanberger won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Abigail A. Spanberger — 67% model odds (won)
  2. Yesli I. Vega — 33% model odds
  3. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts